Thursday, December 28, 2006

My Ten Worst Deals/Moves During the Offseason

I’m sitting around at work doing nothing on a Thursday in between the holidays, so that being said, I might as well be productive.

Well, I am going to take a look at moves and signings in my opinion that have been the 10 worst. Right now, we have about a little more than 2 months left before spring training and it’s a good time to review.

I may look back next week, next month, three months, or a year from now and decide, hey I was wrong.

*Gil Meche. Ok, he receives a 5 year deal for 55 million. Can I ask why? Is he worth 11 million annually? He’s been oft injured and has not lived up to expectations although many in people think he’s got good stuff. However, his career record is slightly over .500 and he’s never had a breakout season. I know the Kansas City Royals want to compete, but you all could have seriously used your money in other places. I know desperation causes people to do stupid things, but when rational sense is lost I don’t know what to say anymore.

*Gary Matthews. He hit the mother lode after one good season and one where he was well into his 30’s. Now, if you compare that one good season to his career numbers, then you kind of see why he’s been bounced from team to team. Well, we shall see if he can repeat his performance from ’06, but the numbers do not say so. Can we not be sure that AmeriQuest Field didn’t help to pad his numbers a little bit?

*Barry Bonds. Even though he’s on the brink of breaking the homerun record, besides the drama, filling up seats and having Barry break the record in a Giant uniform, why pay him $16 million per year, much less at 42? I can name 10 players more productive than he who deliver for less. Think of this deal sort of as a severance package for when he goes away, the Giants needed him a much as he needed them. This man is like a bad itch and the press that will encompass him for his records, legal woes and misdeeds will take focus away of what the Giants will do on the field.

*Juan Pierre. He’s fast, and just about it. He has a poor OBP, gets caught quite a bit in proportion to his steals and isn’t really that good of an outfielder. For 5 years and 9 million per year, the Los Angeles Dodgers could have found some one cheaper who could produce the same amount as Pierre, or even better.

*Jason Marquis. Much like with Gil Meche, desperation does funny things. The Cubs signed a guy who was 14-16 with an ERA a wince above 6 for 3 years and 20 million dollars. I guess pitching is like the Playstation 3, you buy it on impulse thought, without any rational sense. He was so bad that the Cardinals didn’t even think to put him on their playoff roster!

*Alfonso Soriano. This is one deal that does not look bad on paper, just that – he was signed for EIGHT years. By the time the contract has run its course, Soriano will be 39 and most players at the age do not play the same as they did in their prime. In year four or five, his production will most likely go down in comparison terms to his hefty paycheck and trust me; the Chicago Cubs will attempt to trade him in that time. He has great power and speed, but his OBP is not great and he strikes out too much. However, seeing him in the flesh in DC and Baltimore, he’s electric and will bring you a few years of value before the inevitable decline.


*Adam Eaton. Big kid, lots of potential. However, the Phillies paid Adam Eaton like he is an above-average pitcher, although that’s not the case. He’s never thrown more than 200 innings and has been injured for the last two years. Pat Gillick is usually on point with deals; this was not one of them.

*Carlos Lee. He’s got major power and does not strike out too much. Very Good. Now the bad, he’s 31 and has severe conditioning issues. He’s listed at 240 at a height of 6’4”. I am 6’4” and about 215-220 and there’s no way he’s 240, & I’d say 260 pushing 270. He’s signed for 6 years and if he doesn’t lose some weight, he’ll break and his numbers will go down with him. He’s worth maybe 10 or 11 million max, not the 17 plus Houston is going to shell out to him yearly.

*J.D. Drew. The guy has decent numbers and a great OBP. The problem is that he’s oft-injured, seen as aloof and disinterested. I think much of his reputation may be due to the whole draft escapade with the Phillies, but the truth is that he’s been injured a lot and has had some issues with teams. If any of that happens in Boston, the media and fan base will up there take care of him. My whole thought about this deal was if they signed Drew for 5 years and 14 million, why could they not sign Damon for the same amount when their numbers are closely identical looking back at 2006.

* Danys Baez: I am not one to ever rail on my Orioles, but signing Baez to the amount of money he will be receiving yearly is not worth it. I think the Orioles desperation is sort of the same reason why the Royals signed Gil Meche. Baez, a former closer with the Dodgers, Braves and Devil Rays had built up a solid reputation with some great numbers, and then started to regress around 2005. Considering how volatile relief pitching is, this deal could go either way. I though the BJ Ryan deal was asinine, but he was lights out with the Jays and the Orioles deep down inside regret not locking him up sooner. However, Baez’s overall number indicates he may slightly improve, stay at the same level, or get worse. For 6 million per year, he’s not worth it.

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