Can the Friars Win the West Again? San Diego Padres 2007 Season Preview...

The San Diego Padres in 2006 grabbed the National League West division title, but were quickly disposed by the upstart St. Louis Cardinals. In about a month or so, the Friars will once again try to repeat as National League West Champions. The team had great starting pitching last season, but was devoid of power throughout the year, and they in turn at times suffered.

Recently, the team hired former pitcher Bud Black and hopefully he’ll be the guiding hand for a team blessed with pitching and young talent. The team has had quite a few new additions, including Jose Cruz Jr., Marcus Giles and Greg Maddux via free agency, while acquiring Andrew Brown, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Heath Bell and Royce Ring via trades.

Over the winter, the team lost Alan Embree, Ryan Klesko, Chan Ho Park Mike Piazza, Dave Roberts, Woody Williams and Scott Williamson via free agency and lost Ben Johnson, Jon Adkins and Josh Barfield via trade.

For the Friars, the starting rotation is very deep with a mix of young fireballers and crafty veterans. At the top of the rotation will be Jake Peavy who only was 11-14 last year with a 4.09 ERA, but is widely considered the ace of the staff. He had a rough year last season, but should be a strong candidate to bounce back and be the ace, as in 2004 and 2005; he had an ERA under 3. If Peavy can find the form of 2004 and 2005, he will easily be one of the most formidable pitchers in the league.

The second starter will be Chris Young who had a solid year, as he finished with a 3.46 ERA and 11 wins, so the Padres should expect more of the same from him in 2007. In the middle of the rotation may be Clay Hensley. He had an 11-12 record, but compiled an ERA of 3.71, and at only 27, he should be able to build upon last season and perhaps garner a few more wins.

The last two spots will be occupied by two elder statesmen of the game, Greg Maddux and David Wells.

Although Maddux will be 41 heading into 2007, he’s been consistent and foremost, a great competitor. He was 15-14 last season with a 4.20, fairly solid numbers and consistent with his numbers the past several seasons. At this point in his career, the Padres should expect him to be at or a few games above .500 in 2007, but he should give the team quality outings and his experience will be a godsend for the younger players.

David Wells will be 44(!) in May, but when he’s healthy, he can fool the best of them with his off-speed stuff, along with his guts and guile. He only won 3 games last season with a 4.42 ERA, but has finished with double digits in wins pretty much every year before 2006. However, if he’s not healthy, then expect some candidates from the bullpen such as Mike Thompson (19 starts, 4.99 ERA) to get a crack at the rotation.

Much like the starting pitching, the bullpen is also strong and deep with a mixture of young talent and experienced veterans. The closer will be future Hall of Famer, Trevor Hoffman, who saved 46 games with a 2.14 ERA. He’ll be 39 next season, and although Hoffman does not have the velocity he had early in his career, his off-speed stuff has been able to get hitters out the past several seasons. Despite his age, the Padres should expect him to be productive as going into 2007.

Also joining Hoffman in the bullpen will be Cla Meredith, who had an amazing 2006 with a miniscule ERA of 1.07 & will be counted on producing the same result in 2007. Other pitchers who will join the bullpen are Scott Cassidy, Scott Linebrink, Heath Bell, Doug Brocail. As well, possibly getting a chance to prove they belong are Justin Hampson, Royce Ring, Andrew Brown & Tim Stuaffer.

Now, let’s move onto the starting lineup.

The offense for the Padres was lackluster at times, and the team did try to make some moves in the winter, but the market for a big bat was a bit high for the team. However, the team did make a few additions, including signing Marcus Giles & trading heralded rookie Josh Barfield for hot youngster Kevin Kouzmanoff. The Padres lost speedy Dave Roberts and the big bat of Mike Piazza, so the team hopes the new additions, plus the current roster make up the difference of the loss of those who left.

The everyday infield for the Padres will have Adrian Gonzalez at first base, Marcus Giles at second, Khalil Greene at shortstop, and Kevin Kouzmanoff at third. Adrian Gonzalez had a solid year hitting .304 with 22 homers. He’ll be expected to produce or perhaps even exceed his numbers from last year, as Adrian will be a centerpiece for the offense.

Marcus Giles will be the everyday second baseman, as he had a down year across the board and only hit .262. He recently signed with the Padres, and may be a candidate to bounce back. At shortstop will be Khalil Greene, who hit .245 and drove in 55 runs. He was hurt for a little bit in 2006, and had a down year in comparison to his 2004 season. Khalil has struggled with injuries and that might have affected his production, so the team and the fans hope he’s healthy, can bounce back and is ready for 2007.

At third base will be Kevin Kouzmanoff, who I consider the wild card in the lineup. He only .214 in 56 bats, but he had great numbers in the minor leagues, and the Padres hope he will translate that to the majors. If he can develop as a hitter and show some power, he’ll be a force for the Padres in years to come. However, if Kevin struggles, Russ Branyan can play third, as he hit 18 homers last season in only 91 games. The backups for the infield will be the aforementioned Russ Branyan, Paul McAnulty at first, and Geoff Blum who can play every infield position with the exception of first.

The outfield will be manned everyday by Termel Sledge in left field, Mike Cameron in center and Brian Giles in right. For now, Sledge will be the everyday left fielder, but he’s struggled in the majors only hitting .229 last year, and if it continues, expect Russ Branyan to also get a shot as the everyday left fielder.

Mike Cameron will be the everyday center fielder, as he hit .268 and hit 22 homers along with 83 RBI last season and will be a critical part of the offense. He’s perfect for San Diego as he plays super defense, and can man the expansive center field as good as anyone.

In right field will be Brian Giles who hit .263 and drove in 83 RBIs, but had a down year in 2006. At his age, he may or may not bounce back, but the Padres will need him to revert back the form he’s shown in previous seasons. His power numbers have gone down, but he still has a high on-base percentage, and drew 119 walks versus 64 strikeouts, so he’s obviously still got a great batting eye.

Backing up the outfielders will be Jose Cruz, Russ Branyan, Paul McAnulty, Jack Cust.

The everyday catcher will be Josh Bard who hit .333 and drove in 40 runs in 2006. The Padres will depend on him to keep up the same production he had last season. The backups for the catching position will be Rob Bowen and Todd Greene.

In the end, the Padres should be counted on being contenders once again in 2007. With a good starting corps on paper, and a bullpen with reliable arms, the Padres should be the class along with the Dodgers of the National West. The glaring weakness is the offense with its lack of power, but overall, the team should be in fine shape for a division run.

Time will tell if the Padres do win the National League West, or if they end up short.