Can the Giants Win the NL West in '07? The San Francisco Giants 2007 Season Preview...

The San Francisco Giants expected 2006 to be a year where they’d contend and win the NL West title, along with a possible playoff run with their mix of young players and veterans. However, the plan did not go as envisioned, as the Giants were in the playoff hunt in a real weak National League West into September, but a poor run of luck dashed their hopes.

In addition, the team had to endure injuries, especially to big boppers Barry Bonds & Moises Alou, closer Armano Benitez, catcher Mike Matheny, as well as streaky play with both the pitching rotation and batting lineup. The world was left to wonder as the saga of Barry Bonds took center stage for the Giants, with the pursuit of the home run record along on-going legal situation with the BALCO case would affect the team.

The organization had a lot of turnoverr in the winter as Felipe Alou retired and joined the front office, pitcher Jason Schmidt signed with the hated Dodgers and Shea Hillenbrand, Mike Stanton, & slugger Moises Alou all signed with other teams. The Giants have had several new additions, most notably Barry Zito along with Ryan Klesko, Rich Aurilia, Bengie Molina, speedy Dave Roberts, Ryan Klesko and Russ Ortiz. Taking the reigns as the manager is Bruce Bochy, formerly of the San Diego Padres.

The starting rotation for the Giants potentially could be formidable and make waves. As we know, the Giants signed Barry to a monster 7 year contract for 128 million dollars. Although critics had issue with the signing for Barry’s lack of velocity, he relies greatly on his changeup and curveball to get hitters out. Barry Zito has gone to another pitcher’s ballpark, so he should do well. He’s still in his prime, and he’s been healthy and never on the disabled throughout his career, though the law of averages may catch up with him. He’s got an ERA of 3.55 in his career and has pitched over 200 innings in each of his last 6 seasons, so the Giants should expect him to be reliable.

Matt Morris should be a candidate to bounce back. As a solid pitcher in St. Louis, it was expect he’d translate his success to the Giants, but he had a 4.98 ERA and 10-15 record. His track record shows that he should bounce back to numbers more in line with his career stats.

The other starters include Matt Cain who’s coming off a great rook campaign where showed flashes of brilliance. He went 13-12 with a 4.15 ERA, so based on what I saw in ’06 from him, he should be able to build on those numbers heading into the ’07 season. Noah Lowry will also be slotted as a starter and he had a down year with only 7 wins and a 4.74 ERA. He had good year in ’05 as he went 13-13 with a 3.83 ERA and if he could get back to his ’05 level with a few more wins, he’ll pay the Giants huge dividends.

Right now, the fifth starter role is up for grabs, as Brad Hennessy was 5-6 with a 4.26 ERA. However, also vying for that role could be former Giant Russ Ortiz. He has been nothing short of awful these past two seasons, and I saw more than plenty of him in Baltimore. Anyhow, if he could somehow re-capture his ability and pitching from his days with the Giants and the Braves, he could be a steal. As well, Jonathan Sanchez might have a chance to start as well.

The bullpen was a major problem for the Giants in ’06. Closer Armando Benitez was out for much of the season due to an injury, and right now it’s looking unclear as to when he’ll return or if he’s healthy. Also in the bullpen will be Brian Wilson who could serve as a closer, Steve Kline, Kevin Correia, Jonathan Sanchez & Vinnie Chulk. Right now, there could be several other men favored for the bullpen, and with the retirement of Tim Worrell, things are in flux.

The batting order for the Giants has undergone some change, and is pretty old in comparison to other lineups throughout baseball.

Much of the attention in the batting order is given to Barry Bonds. As we all know, Bonds is in pursuit of the home run and has been a force in the game since the 1990’s, but in 2006, age caught up with him as he missed a good portion of the season with knee and elbow issues, but came back strong finishing up with 26 homers and a .270 average. If he’s healthy, he’s a dangerous hitter and has a great on-base percentage. I expect him to sit out a game once or twice a week, but if he’s in shape, he’s a good as any hitter in baseball right now. He’s not much on defense anymore and look slow, but he’s in the lineup for his bat.

The outfield will be manned by speedy Dave Roberts, who makes great contact and has a good on base percentage, but his power is lacking. However, he is a great fielder and base-runner, so he’ll taking over centerfield. In right field, will be Randy Winn who only hit .262 in ’06 after coming via a trade from Seattle. Hopefully in ’07 he’ll be slightly better.

The bench for the outfield will probably be Jason Ellison & longtime veteran Ryan Klesko who should see some time in first-base, right and left field, considering the condition of Barry Bonds and others during the season.

The infield will be manned by Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel and Pedro Feliz. With exception of Vizauel, the infield is not great at all, but just merely adequate. Rich Aurilia returns to San Francisco and will probably be the main guy at first, although he could moved around to play other positions. He was a productive player in Cincinnati the last two season and the Giants hope he can maintain his numbers.

Ray Durham was a pleasant surprise last season where he hit 26 homers with 93 RBIs. He easily topped all his career numbers on ’06, and he’ll be 35 when the season begins. The Giants are hoping he can reproduce what he did last season for ’07. Slick-fielding shortstop Omar Vizquel returns for his 18th season, and at 40, he’s not as quick as he used to be, but hopefully he can still be productive. He hit .295 last season, and had an OBP of .369, so might be able to continue for another year or two. Pedro Feliz had some pop with 22 homers and 98 RBIs, but his .244 batting average does need to improve along with his plate discipline.

The infield bench should consist of first baseman Lance Niekro or maybe Mark Sweeney, along with Kevin Frandsen.

Catching for the Giants will be Bengie Molina. He had a good year with Toronto where he hit 19 homers with 57 RBI and a .284 batting average. His OBP is low, he’s slow footed and he does not draw many walks at all, but he calls a great game and handles a pitching real well. Backing up Molina will be Elizer Alfonzo.

The Giants may improve on their lackluster ending to ’06 in the upcoming season. The team may not be complete enough to win the NL West, but the division is wide open right now. Much of how the Giants fare will do with how Bonds recovers from his ailments in ’06 and if he can swing the bat as he did before the injuries (based on the end of last season – he can). As well, will the media attend surrounding Bonds and his BALCO case affects the ream.

What remains to be seen is can Zito be the ace and doubt the skeptics, as well can the young pitching step up and deliver? As well, the team is older and built to win now, but can they? Nevertheless, it should be an interesting year in the City by the Bay.