Monday, February 5, 2007

Can the Rangers Contend? Texas Rangers 2007 Season Preview...

Deep in the heart of Texas, the Rangers for the past two decades have always been known as a team with a dearth of power and offense, but the pitching has always lagged behind. Thanks to the cozy confines of the park, and perhaps due to sweltering heat, AmeriQuest Field serves as a launching pad, but a house of horrors for pitchers, both for the home and visiting team.

Changes took place during the winter in Texas, with taskmaster Buck Showalter being shown the door, and former Athletics’ coach Ron Washington taking the helm. Washington’s positive attitude should counteract the problems that players had with Buck Showalter.

The team did usher through many changes in addition to the manager, as they lost Gary Matthews who had a career year, steady Mark DeRosa, Rod Barajas, Adam Eaton, Kip Wells, John Danks, and Carlos Lee who came via trade from Milwaukee and took the big money down the road in Houston. The newest additions to the team include former Cy Young winner Eric Gagne, long-time veteran Kenny Lofton, Marlon Byrd, Frank Catalanotto and slugger Sammy Sosa who is trying to inch closer to 600 home runs and baseball immortality.

The Rangers have not been contenders for the past several seasons, and they have had a backseat to the Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Although the team has not gotten into the playoffs this decade, they have a great core in Mark Teixeira, Hank Blalock, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young. As well, the pitching corps may not have as much firepower as the Red Sox, or the Yankees, but they have capable starters Kevin Millwood in the fold, plus Vicente Padillia and recent addition Brandon McCarthy.

Let’s start with the pitching staff. For many years, the pitching staff has been underwhelming for the Rangers; however, the team has made strides in improving the situation by fostering young talent and also getting talent to come to Texas. The top of the rotation should be manned by Kevin Milwood and Vicente Padilla. Both men have been signed to huge contracts within the past 2 years, and both will need to perform to help the Rangers move up the ladder. Both men were decent in ’06 atop the pitching staff, as Milwood was 16-12 & Padilla was 15-10 with ERAs in the mid 4 range. If Milwood and Padilla can duplicate where they were in ’06 into next season, or even perform better, they should serve the Rangers well.

The wild card in the rotation will be newly acquired Brandon McCarthy. He’s in a new place after struggling with the White Sox in both the starting rotation and bullpen compiling an ERA of 4.68 with a record of 4-7. He should be at the bottom of the rotation, and if could he live up to his promise, he’ll go a long way in helping out the team.

The rest of the rotation should have Robinson Tejeda and John Koronka. Tejada was 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA in 14 games, and Koronka was 7-7 with a 5.69 ERA. Both guys showed flashes of brilliance last year, while they struggled; however, both men are young and will figure prominently in the team’s long term plans if they pitch to their potential in ’07.

The bullpen for the Rangers remains pretty much like it did in ’06, though for one big addition – former Cy Young winner Eric Gagne. He’ll be the setup man for Akinori Otuska, who had a marvelous 2006 where he was 2-4 with a 2.11 ERA and 32 saves. Traded to the Rangers in ’06 from the Padres, Otuska was a reliable stopper for the team and should maintain at same level he was at in ’06 or possibly improve.

The big wild in the bullpen is the aforementioned Eric Gagne. He has missed much of the past 2 seasons with injuries and has only been in 16 games during that period. Before that, he was pretty much ‘lights out’ with the Los Angeles Dodgers, racking up 100 saves during ’03-04. If he could find his form that he had in Los Angeles, he’ll be a bargain and the perfect bridge to Otuska, or perhaps could find himself closing games as well. Also in the bullpen will be Wes Littlejohn, Rick Bauer, Josh Rupe, Scott Feldman, C.J. Wilson and Joaquin Benoit.

Unlike the starting pitching, the Rangers seem to have plenty of offense. Although the team will miss the production of Mark DeRosa and Gary Matthews Jr., key players like Mark Teixiera and Michael Young return in ’07.

Right now, the wild card in the lineup is Sammy Sosa. As we know, he recently signed a minor league contract to join the team. He took of last season after struggling horribly in Baltimore in 2005 and as well trying to recapture his glory after a messy divorce with the Chicago Cubs. At 38, he’s attempting a comeback and Texas is a team that fits him well. Sammy will play in a hitters ballpark, and if makes the team and if he’s got some gas left in the tank, he may make the Rangers lineup formidable.

Sosa will probably serve as the part time DH, or might find himself in an outfield platoon if he even makes the team.

The infield for the team is very solid, and serves as the core of the team. At first base will be Mark Teixeira; at second, Ian Kinsler; at shortstop, Michael Young and at third, Hank Blalock. First baseman, Mark Teixeira struggled at times during the ’06 season and perhaps had a down year with a .282 average and 33 homers and 110 RBIs, but still had a very productive season. The Rangers should look forward to him to having another great season.

Ian Kinsler will be the everyday second baseman, and had a great rookie year with 14 homers, 55 RBI to go with a .286 batting average. Kinsler made an impression with the Rangers and with his skills; the sky could be limit for him as he’s already one of the better second baseman in the game. At shortstop, Michael Young returns as he had an excellent year batting .314 with 103 RBIs; therefore, based on his track record, more of the same should be expected from him in ’07.

At third base will be Hank Blalock. He batted .266 with 16 homeruns and 89 RBI and should be counted on keeping up the same production into 2007.

On the bench for the team should be Frank Catalanotto, who should see a lot of playing time at second, DH and various positions. He batted .300 in 128 games for Blue Jays, plus has had a very good track record the past few seasons.

Also on the bench for the infield will be Joaquin Arias & Jason Botts.

The outfield for the team is very crowded with established veterans. The everyday starters in the outfield should be a combination of Brad Wilkerson, Nelson Cruz, Kenny Lofton and Frank Catalanotto being a platoon guy, along with Marlon Byrd and Victor Diaz as backups.

Brad Wilkerson is a longtime veteran & came to the Rangers in ’05 via the Soriano trade with the Nationals. He should get the majority of starts in left field, but struggled last season with injuries and a .222 average. However, he’s got some pop and should be good for a .260-280 average and should bounce back after a down season.

Kenny Lofton should get the majority of starts in center, and although he’s nearing 40, he’s still been a productive player in part-time duty. Even though he does not have much power, he’s still got plenty of speed to swipe bases and hit for average. He will probably split time between Marlon Byrd and Brad Wilkerson, but he’s still very much a productive player and will help out the Rangers.

Nelson Cruz batted .223 in 40 games up at the big league level last year, and should start in right field, but should also share time with Marlon Byrd and Victor Diaz.

Starting at catcher will most likely be Gerald Laird, as he batted .296 in 78 games and performed fairly well in '06. Miguel Ojeda and Chris Stewart will serve as his backup.

In the end, the Rangers may not have enough to win the AL West, but the team has a core of young and established veterans that could make an impact in ’07. A lot of the success that the team will have this upcoming season will depend on their pitching and if the weaker parts of the offense from ‘06 picking up the slack.

Also, the other storyline that America will be watching is Sammy Sosa, and whether he can reclaim his glory, or he if he’s done.

4 comments:

SAMO said...

Thanks for doing such a great preview on my Texas Rangers!

A few things....

First off, I don't think the Rangers are the favorites to win the AL West, but they have a legit shot at it.

According to the Buck rule, because he left, the Rangers should win the World Series this year (see Arizona and NY).

I like the Ron Washington signing, I think plays will respond to him in a positive way. He is a much better alternative to Showalter who seemed to be in constant conflict with one Rangers player or another throughout last season.

I like Matthews had a great year, but I think that was an abberation and shouldn't be expected in his future. I think Lofton was a solid one-year replacement. Perhaps the Rangers are lookign at Tori Hunter for next season when he becomes a free agent.

Mark DeRosa's versatility throughout the infield and outfield will be missed. He also had a career year and the Rangers will miss him.

I thought the John Danks trade was very solid. Yes you lost your prized prospect, but you got another one who is more coveted and further along in McCarthy.

Although Millwood's ERA this past season was 4.70, his ERA+ was actually 104, showing just how much of a hitter's park Ameriquest Field is. But looking into his splits, one can see that Millwood was a great pitcher last year, on the road that is, however he struggled mightly at home, as he had trouble adjusting to pitching in Texas. (ERA was 5.38 at home and 3.74 on the road) If Millwood can figure it out, he will certainly be an ace-worthy pitcher. Padilla had a strong year also, however I think Robinson Tejeda will be crucial to this team. Last year, he finished the season on fire as he had a 3.63 ERA in 3 starts in August, and a 1.70 ERA in 6 starts in Sept./Oct.

The same thing applies to the offense. You know Tex, Young, Kinsler, and Blalock will produce. But it will need to be Wilkerson, Catalinato, Cruz, and Laird that will need to come up big if the Rangers want to win the West.

I think this team's bullpen is their greatest strength. They have a ton of young, good arms and if Gagne is healthy then wow!

Overall, I think this team isn't the favorite to win the AL West. However, they should be in it till the end, or at least close to the end.

Unknown said...

Wow, where I do begin...

The Rangers have an outside shot, if the Angels and A's struggle (though the A's will, only to play .700+ ball from June until Oct. as they always have since the decade began).

A lot, and I mean a lot must go right for them to contend.

The Buck Rule - nice. Going for the trifecta?

Ameriquest field is just brutal - I don't know if it's as bad in respect to Arlington Stadium for the homer ball, but I'd shudder to be a pitcher there.

SAMO said...

No nobody wants to pitch there, that is why Texas always has to overpay for free agency, or free agents balk at coming to Texas. However, even the Millwood deal looks like a good one in this now inflated market.

lifetimemike said...

Great job with the breakdown. One of the most objective articles I've seen. Thanks. LosRangers

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