Can the Reds win the NL Central? Cincinnati Reds 2007 Season Preview...

The Queen City, Cincinnati has a long, hallowed tradition in the sport of baseball, but there has been little to celebrate for the past couple of years. The Reds have not been in the playoffs in the last decade, but in 2006, the team was in the hunt for a playoff spot until the very end in a competitive NL Central.

GM Wayne Krivsky instead of relying on the homer happy offense of the past several seasons, took a huge gamble to rebuild the pitching corps (mainly the bullpen) along with defense by trading away talent. The trade that sparked the most talk in baseball during in 2006 was outfielder Austin Kearns and infielder Felipe Lopez sent to the Nationals for pitchers Gary Majewski, Bill Bray and Royce Clayton.

As well, youngster Willy Mo Pena was traded for Bronson Arroyo – a move that would pay the Reds huge dividends.

In the end, the Reds came up short in terms of a playoff spot, but the team last season strengthened their bullpen and defense for 2007 and beyond.

The Reds had a quiet offseason on the market, but they added quite a bit of new pieces for 2007, including Alex Gonzales and Mike Stanton via free agency, and the team acquired Jeff Keppinger, Kirk Saarloos, Josh Hamilton and Jeff Conine via trade.

Several players left the team during the winter, and they are Rich Aurilia, Royce Clayton, Ryan Franklin, Jason Johnson, Scott Schoenweis, Jason LaRue, Brendan Harris and David Shafer.

The pitching rotation for the Reds came up big in 2006, and it should remain pretty much the same as it did last year. The top of the rotation is spear-headed by Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang. A week ago, both pitchers received lucrative contract extensions, so the team should have two strong, and durable hurlers for 2007 and beyond.

Arroyo in 2006 stepped up his game big time going 14-11 with a 3.29 ERA for the Reds. The change of scenery made him into one of the best starters in the National League during the first half, but then he struggled a bit after the All-Star Game break. In the end, he finished 2006 strong.

Aaron Harang was also another starter who found himself in last season. After a career where he’s shown steady improvement year to year, he won 16 games in 2006 and finished with a 3.76 ERA. If Bronson and Aaron can follow-up on last season, the Reds have a good 1-2 punch that could compete with anyone in the National League.

Once you get past the top of the rotation, things get murky. The middle of the rotation features Eric Milton who is prone to homer ball, but showed in an improvement last season as he finished 8-8 with a 5.19 ERA. He only gave up only 29 homers last season – a marked improvement from the 40 he gave up in ’05. They will need him to improve and keep the ball in the park for the Reds to improve.

Kyle Lohse will be the fourth starter, and he’s had a tough road the past several seasons. He’s not had a .500 or above record since 2003, and he was 5-10 with a 5.83 ERA in 2006. Blessed with a good arm and a great fastball, he’ll need to find the success he had earlier in his career, or he may find himself out of a job with the Reds. The fifth starter slot is up for grabs, but right now Kirk Sarloos might get some consideration as he was acquired in a trade and was 7-7 with an ERA under 5 in 2006.

Also in consideration for the 5th spot are Matt Belisle who appeared in 30 games and had an ERA of 3.60, Elizardo Ramirez, Bobby Livingston and Phil Dumatrait but the latter three will probably be in the minors when the season begins. However, the Reds will be watching Homer Bailey, who’s a great young prospect in the minors, and could perhaps be seen at some point in 2007 if all goes well.

The Reds in 2007 will once again have the appearance of a strong bullpen, albeit, there’s not a real closer. The bullpen in 2006 early on was a big problem, as Wayne Krivsky realized it was weak, and he spent the much of 2006 on improving thing as well as fighting for a playoff spot.

In the bullpen this year will be young guns Bill Bray, Gary Majewski, and veterans Rheal Cormier, Mike Stanton and “Everyday” Eddie Guardado (though he is coming back from injury and won’t be back until mid-season), David Weathers and Todd Coffey. The team will probably employ a bullpen-by-committee to establish a closer, but David Weathers & Mike Stanton are strong candidates to close out games this upcoming season until Guardado returns. Majewski (coming back from injury) and Bray may be in long/middle relief, as they were both incredibly solid in Washington before they were traded.

The offense has gone from some changes from 2006 into 2007, but however, the offense should still be formidable with young players and veterans in the mix. Instead on relying on the home run, the team now looks to manufacture runs with speed and small ball; however, the longball is very much a weapon with Dunn and Griffey in the middle of the lineup.

The everyday infield for the Reds will have Scott Hatteberg at first base, Brandon Phillips at second, Alex Gonzalez at shortstop, and Edwin Encarncion at third. The defense is solid, especially up the middle with Philips and Gonzalez playing everyday.

First base will be manned by Scott Hatteberg. He’s got a solid bat as he hit .289 with 13 homers and 51 RBIs 2006, but the team is impressed by his on-base percentage and batting eye, as he almost had twice as many walks compared to his strikeouts. He’ll be 37 heading into the season, but there’s no reason to believe why he still cannot be productive in 2007.

Second base will be covered by Brandon Phillips, who impressed the organization by finally playing to his potential by batting .276 and showed some power with 17 homers and 75 runs driven in. He’ll be expected to translate his success from 2006 into 2007 and show the baseball world that he’s made it.

The everyday shortstop will be Alex Gonzalez as he’s a great fielder, but lacks plate discipline and doesn’t draw walks at all. He’s showed the ability to hit for power, but has not in the last few seasons. The Reds should realize from his track record, he’s got an awesome glove, but be sub-par at the plate. If Gonzalez could improve his plate discipline (somewhat unlikely), he’d help the Reds immensely.

Edwin Encarnacion will be the regular third baseman. He had a solid season hitting .276, drove in 72 runs and showed some power. He showed a lot of promise in increased playing time from his last two seasons, and the Reds hope he’ll keep it up. Backing up the infield will be 40-something, yet productive Jeff Conine at first, Juan Castro and Jeff Keppinger who can play multiple positions.

The outfield will pretty much remain the same from the end of last season. Big Adam Dunn will be the everyday left fielder, Future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey in center field, and Ryan Freel in right field.

Big Adam Dunn hit 40 homers in 2006; however, the bad news is that he struck out 194 times (yikes!) and hit only .234. The good news is that he had an on base percentage of .365 and walked 112 times.

Despite his amazing power, his fielding is suspect (but he’s not in the lineup for his fielding prowess). Therefore, if he can improve on his batting average and cut down on the strikeouts, he’ll enhance his reputation as one of fearsome hitters in the game.

Legendary Ken Griffey will once again be in the center field for 2007. He once again struggled with injuries in 2006, but he was able to hit 27 homers in 108 games. As the wild card in the outfield, Griffey is no longer the same player he was during the 1990’s, but still remains a productive and dangerous hitter.

However, his defense and range have slipped quite a bit over the past few years, and there’s talk of him moving to right to save his legs and put less stress on his body. He’s battled injuries for the past several years and while he was healthy in 2005 playing in 128 games, the fact of the matter is he could be hurt at any time.

If Ken Griffey can remain healthy, he will remain one of the most dangerous hitters in the game.

Ryan Freel will be the every day right fielder, as he batted a solid .271, stole 37 bases, while playing incredible defense, and has a great arm to go with it. However, the main concern with him is that he plays so hard and sometimes is so reckless in the field that he’ll get injured.

Backing up the outfielders will be Bubba Crosby who should see some time in a platoon role, Jeff Conine, Norris Hopper, Chris Denorfia. Rule 5 player, Josh Hamilton who’s trying to make a comeback may also play a role if he makes the team.

The everyday catcher will be David Ross who hit 21 homers in only 90 games, as Jason LaRue was traded to the Royals. The Reds hope can he match the success he was able to garner in 2006 into 2007. However, his .255 batting average is a little low, and perhaps that could improve. Backing up Ross will be Javier Valentin and possibly Chad Moeller.

Do the Reds have enough to compete in the NL Central? Maybe not, but then again the NL Central is still fairly weak, and everyone in the division with exception of the Pittsburgh Pirates have a chance to contend for a division title. Although the pitching has improved, the Reds may be haunted by the deal with the Nationals as they traded offensive threats, Kearns and Lopez. Nevertheless, I expect the Reds to be in the middle of thing 2007 and be a contender, though they do have some weaknesses.

However, the Reds should nevertheless be very exciting to watch with big boppers Dunn and Griffey in the middle, along with the young talent, and stud pitchers Arroyo and Harang.