The baseball season has been over for a little over two months now. Since the St. Louis Cardinals took home the trophy, rumors, talk and transactions that have taken place during baseball’s idle time has made this another season upon itself in the game.
So alas, we need to need to discuss that state of the Baltimore Orioles in my eyes. We are about halfway through the offseason, and since pitchers and catchers report to camp in February, now is a good time as any to discuss the Birds.
It has nevertheless been an interesting off season, not only for the Orioles, but for all of baseball. First off, we remade our bullpen, which was sort of an Achilles heel throughout the 2006 season. Second, and most glaring, we tried to get an impact bat and failed because of the market and the front office’s hesitation to bid on the extravagant contracts the marquee free agents wanted. Third, we tried to get a frontline starter, but did not for the same reasons we didn’t get an impact bat – money.
Let’s start with the bullpen. With the exception of Chris Ray and Chris Britton, the bullpen was a continuous audition for a bad play that resembled a train wreck, with guys from Triple-A being called up, reclamation projects such as Jim Brower, John Halama and Russ Ortiz pitching; as well, giving failed starting pitchers like Rodrigo Lopez and Bruce Chen an opportunity to fix their problems, but more often than not, failing.
Well, when failure is the result, you have to rebuild and retool. That’s what the Orioles did with the bullpen.
If you’ve been keeping score at home, the only pitcher secured a spot right now in the bullpen is Chris Ray, and he’s the closer. The Orioles signed pitchers Scott Willamson, Danys Baez, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford.
With the free agent market being the way it is right now, the team signed good pitchers with reliable track records. That’s the good news.
The bad news may be the amount we paid for them. All in all, nearly 42 million dollars was spent securing relief pitching, which I found to be an astronomical number consider how volatile it can be. The best signing was Scott Williamson, as he received a one year deal for $1 million and he’s trying to recover from an injury and this perhaps may serve as a tryout. The rest of the pitchers, most especially Baez, were signed for too many years.
Danys Baez has established himself as a reliable closer in MLB, as of late for the Dodgers, Braves, and the Devil Rays, but had a down year in 2006 and he’ll be doing setup work for The Birds. Jamie Walker is known as a left handed specialist and came from the AL Champions, Detroit, but I think in the end, he got too many years at an average of 3 million plus. Chad Bradford may be the most reasonable of the group, as he had a great year with the Mets and is a submarine/sidearm pitcher who’s had past success.
Well, the next area I’d like to focus on is the starting pitching. In my opinion, this is the place which will determine whether the Orioles will sink and swim, considering the expectation of the young pitchers in the rotation.
The rotation right now has a lot of upside, but not necessarily the expectation of anything great. The ace of the staff, Erik Bedard came off a great year where he led the club in wins and ERA, and this will be the season to see if he can take it to the next level. He became the leader of the rotation and excelled after he learned a changed and used it in his arsenal.
In my mind, he might be the only sure thing assuming he doesn’t regress.
The two wild cards in the rotation and that will make or break the Orioles are Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera. They both have great stuff, Cabrera especially, and both have youth and time on their side. Adam Loewen last year showed signs of brilliance, especially against the Yankees, but also showed his inexperience by sometimes losing focus and showing bouts of wildness, and not hitting his spots when pitching. I expect him to improve as he has more games under his belt.
Daniel Cabrera could be the next big thing or a pitcher who was unable to reach his potential. A towering presence, Daniel has a great fastball and great stuff, but he was way too inconsistent, wild and sometimes like confidence in his ability. Sometimes his mechanics were off, but it is more of a mental thing and not knowing to or having the confidence to battle out of tough spots. After his final start with the Yankees, the world got to see what he could and hopefully it will serve as motivation for him to get to the next level.
The two last pitchers slotted to start in the rotation are Kris Benson and Jaret Wright. Both men are pretty much seen as average starters and middle to end of the rotation guys. Benson has always been known as an average pitcher who will give you a .500 record and about a 4.50 or above ERA. Jaret Wright, who was with the Yankees, & came over from a trade for relief pitcher Chris Britton. Wright is probably a 5 or 6 inning pitcher at this point in his career and has had average numbers. He’s also battled a number of injuries too and is a long way from the pitcher he was in Cleveland and Atlanta.
The saving grace for the pitching staff is if Leo Mazzone can in year two spark the magic in the Orioles that he did in Atlanta. He’s pumped to be ready for camp, and this year will determine whether his reputation for working wonders with pitchers is real for just because of the talent he was able to secure in Atlanta.
My opinion, the bullpen has improved, but has the starting pitching? Like I said earlier, the pitching is the wild card and will determine whether the O’s will sink or swim. Not having Ortiz, Chen, perhaps Lopez will improve things by a lot, but the pitchers still need to perform to their ability.
The final portion of this post deals with the offense and fielding. With the exception of Jay Payton, the lineup is almost identical to last year. During the offseason, we had a chance to sign Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee and a group of lesser name sluggers, but we only acquired Jay Payton. I figure this was primarily due to the amount of money and the contracts that many players wanted, even though it may not have been indicative of their ability or track record.
Jay Payton is a fine player, but he’s not the bat the Orioles needed.
The priority for the Orioles this offseason was to get a big bat, and one to protect Miguel Tejada. That has not been done of yet, and as of right now, the biggest slugger on the market is Aubrey Huff and it is unknown if we can acquire him.
The Orioles were in the bottom half of runs scored and did little to improve upon that. Although he’s probably past his prime, resigning Millar was beneficial, as he’s got an good OBP, plate discipline and is good in the clubhouse. Although his numbers last year were subpar, when he’s given a chance to play, he is productive.
The middle of the field is secure for now with Brian Roberts, Tejada and Melvin Mora. Brian Roberts came back from a gruesome injury, and Tejada once again delivered with the bat, but his power numbers were slightly down. However, his fielding looked suspect last season and I sorely hope it was because of injury, and not because of age, because his range and performance were poor in the field. Perhaps a position change might do him good, either to first or third, but it looks like he’s in the field for now. Melvin Mora had an off year and his numbers look to be declining, but you can count on him to bat .280 with at least 15 homers and 80 RBIs. All three guys are fan favorites, and will probably be here for a number of years to come.
Even though the trade values of Miguel and Brian are fairly high, do not count a on a move to happen.
The outfield is manned by Jay Payton, Corey Patterson and Mark Markakis. Nick broke out in a big way this year after struggling in the first part of the year. After June, he came out blazing with an almost .400 average and was hot throughout the summer as he finally got comfortable at the plate and secured the everyday position in right field. However, he regressed in September and perhaps it was due to fatigue, but nevertheless he’s the bright spot on this team.
I expect Markakis to break out this year, bat close to .300 throughout the year and cross the 20 homer plateau.
The other two men in the outfield, Jay Payton and Corey Patterson are serviceable enough for now. Payton has a lot of miles on him, as he played for the Mets, Rockies, A’s and Red Sox, but he’s always been reliable and should give you solid numbers. Corey Patterson is a speed demon and great in the field, but he strikes out way too much and doesn’t do particularly well against lefties.
We also have Gibbons who may be slotted to be the designated hitter or first baseman. He’s battled injuries for a while now, but with his build and power, he should be at least hitting 25 homeruns with over 90 RBIs. The main question is can he stay healthy? He’s only 29, still has time on his side and maybe being out of the field will keep him intact for a whole season.
Right now, I am not sure who we will have on the bench, with the exception of Chris Gomez who was nothing short of great once he came back from his injury, and Brandon Fahey.
In the end, the Orioles need to decide whether they want to compete or rebuild. On paper, they look slightly better than what their 70-92 record indicates, but in my eyes, it looked like a lot of the players were not trying and accepted the way things were.
However, I think we are quite a bit away from contending, but if all goes well a .500 record is attainable. There needs to be a plan with the organization, whether to rebuild around Tejada, and get the bats we need, or perhaps consider trading our strongest chips, outside Bedard, Cabrera, Markakis and Loewen and see if we can get young talent under our control to compete perhaps in ’09 or ’10.
If competing and contending ever becomes palatable again here in Baltimore for the Orioles, there are more changes to be needed with the makeup of this team.
