The Birds of Baltimore and the Outlook for 2007

As we are less than a month away from spring training, the Orioles have been beaten up in the media not their losing way over the last nine years, but the perception that the front office is inept. Even though the team didn’t make too many waves in terms of a “sexy” big name signing, or getting a marquee player, the Oriole have improved, but perhaps not enough to contend for a wild card spot. There has been a bit of bad news recently for the team as steady reliever, Kris Benson is most likely out for the season with a torn rotator cuff; Jose Acevedo, a relief pitcher in the organization may be out too for extended period of time as he recovers from a motorcycle accident.

Considering we are less than a month and a half from opening day, the anticipation of baseball not only here in Maryland, but around the nation is growing. For most fans of the Orioles, the season may bring renewed optimism, but hopefully by July the team will still be in the hunt and perhaps impact as well as be a player in many of the races in the American League.

However, once again, the Baltimore Orioles may perhaps be relegated to 4^th place again and looking up in the standings to their usual foes the Yankees and Red Sox at the top of the division, and the Blue Jays in third.

It has nevertheless been an interesting off season, not only for the Orioles, but for all of baseball. First off, we remade our bullpen, which was sort of an Achilles heel throughout the 2006 season. Second, we tried to get an impact bat and failed because of the market, but we were able to get Aubrey Huff, a versatile player has had some success in the past. Third, we tried to get a frontline starter, but did not for the same reasons we didn’t get an impact bat – money in comparison to the talent and the length of contracts of out in the market.

Let’s start with the bullpen. With the exception of Chris Ray and Chris Britton, the bullpen was a continuous audition for a bad play that resembled a train wreck, with guys from Triple-A being called up, reclamation projects such as Jim Brower, John Halama and Russ Ortiz pitching; as well, giving failed starting pitchers like Rodrigo Lopez and Bruce Chen an opportunity to fix their problems, but more often than not, failing.

This caused the team to take drastic measures. The Orioles completely retooled their bullpen with Chris Ray and Todd Williams being the only layovers from last year right now.

We were able to get pitchers with good track records, but I think we paid too much for them, in tune of $42 million total with the contracts handed out. The best signing was Scott Williamson, as he received a one year deal for $1 million and he’s trying to recover from an injury and this perhaps may serve as a tryout. The rest of the pitchers, most especially Baez, were signed for too many years. However, Chris Britton, a young reliever, was traded away to the Yankees for Jaret Wright, a starter.

Danys Baez has established himself as a reliable closer in MLB, as of late for the Dodgers, Braves, and the Devil Rays, but had a down year in 2006 and he’ll be doing setup work for The Birds. Jamie Walker is known as a left handed specialist and came from the AL Champions, Detroit, but I think in the end, he got too many years at an average of 3 million plus. Chad Bradford may be the most reasonable of the group, as he had a great year with the Mets and is a submarine/sidearm pitcher who’s had past success.

Well, the next area I’d like to focus on is the starting pitching. In my opinion, this is the place which will determine whether the Orioles will sink and swim, considering the expectation of the young pitchers in the rotation.

The rotation right now has a lot of upside, but not necessarily the expectation of anything great. The ace of the staff, Erik Bedard came off a great year where he led the club in wins and ERA, and this will be the season to see if he can take it to the next level. He became the leader of the rotation and excelled after he learned a changed and used it in his arsenal.

In my mind, he might be the only sure thing assuming he doesn’t regress.

The two wild cards in the rotation and that will make or break the Orioles are Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera. They both have great stuff, Cabrera especially, and both have youth and time on their side. Adam Loewen last year showed signs of brilliance, especially against the Yankees, but also showed his inexperience by sometimes losing focus and showing bouts of wildness, and not hitting his spots when pitching. I expect him to improve as he has more games under his belt.

Daniel Cabrera could be the next big thing or a pitcher who was unable to reach his potential. A towering presence, Daniel has a great fastball and great stuff, but he was way too inconsistent, wild and sometimes like confidence in his ability. Sometimes his mechanics were off, but it is more of a mental thing and not knowing to or having the confidence to battle out of tough spots. After his final start with the Yankees, the world got to see what he could and hopefully it will serve as motivation for him to get to the next level.

The two last pitchers slotted to start in the rotation are Steve Trachsel and Jaret Wright. Both men are pretty much seen as average starters and middle to end of the rotation guys. Trachsel is not bad, and he won 15 games in '06, but his ERA was a tad under 5. However, he does have a decent track record as a reliable pitcher and it remains to be seen how the switch from the NL to the AL will affect him.

Wright is probably a 5 or 6 inning pitcher at this point in his career and has had average numbers. He’s also battled a number of injuries too and is a long way from the pitcher he was in Cleveland and Atlanta.

The saving grace for the pitching staff is if Leo Mazzone can in year two spark the magic in the Orioles that he did in Atlanta. He’s pumped to be ready for camp, and this year will determine whether his reputation for working wonders with pitchers is real for just because of the talent he was able to secure in Atlanta.

My opinion, the bullpen has improved, but has the starting pitching? Like I said earlier, the pitching is the wild card and will determine whether the O’s will sink or swim. Not having Ortiz, Chen, perhaps Lopez will improve things by a lot, but the pitchers still need to perform to their ability.

The final portion of this post deals with the offense and fielding. With the exception to the additions of Aubrey Huff & Jay Payton, the lineup is almost identical to last year. During the offseason, we had a chance to sign Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee and a group of lesser name sluggers, but due to the market, we ended up with Huff and Payton. I figure this was primarily due to the amount of money and the contracts that many players wanted, even though it may not have been indicative of their ability or track record.

The priority for the Orioles this offseason was to get a big bat, and one to protect Miguel Tejada. The team was in the bottom half of runs scored and some work to improve upon that.

We were not able to get the big name, but the Orioles did get Aubrey Huff. Huff has had some solid numbers with Tampa Bay, but regressed last year with time split between the Rays and Houston. Well, it looks like he’ll be playing multiple positions and will be having a lot playing time. I think he’ll be good for 20 plus homers, 80 plus RBI’s and at least a .270 average. He’s always hit well at Camden Yards, and perhaps the short wall to right field will entice him to put up some good numbers. I still think the Orioles needed more, but with all things considered, if Huff has a good season, he’ll be a bargain.

Huff is expected to split time between the corner outfield positions, first base and third base.

Although he’s probably past his prime, resigning Millar was beneficial, as he’s got an good OBP, plate discipline and is good in the clubhouse. Although his numbers last year were subpar, when he’s given a chance to play, he is productive.

The middle of the field is secure for now with Brian Roberts, Tejada and Melvin Mora. Brian Roberts came back from a gruesome injury, and Tejada once again delivered with the bat, but his power numbers were slightly down. However, his fielding looked suspect last season and I sorely hope it was because of injury, and not because of age, because his range and performance were poor in the field. Perhaps a position change might do him good, either to first or third, but it looks like he’s in the field for now. Melvin Mora had an off year and his numbers look to be declining, but you can count on him to bat .280 with at least 15 homers and 80 RBIs. All three guys are fan favorites, and will probably be here for a number of years to come.

Even though the trade values of Miguel and Brian are fairly high, do not count a on a move to happen.

The outfield will be manned by Aubrey Huff, Corey Patterson, Mark Markakis as well as Jay Payton. Nick broke out in a big way this year after struggling in the first part of the year. After June, he came out blazing with an almost .400 average and was hot throughout the summer as he finally got comfortable at the plate and secured the everyday position in right field. However, he regressed in September and perhaps it was due to fatigue, but nevertheless he’s the bright spot on this team.

I expect Markakis to break out this year, bat close to .300 throughout the year and cross the 20 homer plateau.

The other two men in the outfield, Jay Payton and Corey Patterson are serviceable enough for now. Payton has a lot of miles on him, as he played for the Mets, Rockies, A’s and Red Sox, but he’s always been reliable and should give you solid numbers. Corey Patterson is a speed demon and great in the field, but he strikes out way too much and doesn’t do particularly well against lefties.

We also have Gibbons who may be slotted to be the designated hitter or first baseman. He’s battled injuries for a while now, but with his build and power, he should be at least hitting 25 homeruns with over 90 RBIs. The main question is can he stay healthy? He’s only 29, still has time on his side and maybe being out of the field will keep him intact for a whole season.

Right now, I am not sure who we will have on the bench, with the exception of Chris Gomez who was nothing short of great once he came back from his injury, and Brandon Fahey.

In the end, the Orioles need to decide whether they want to compete or rebuild. On paper, they look slightly better than what their 70-92 record indicates, but in my eyes, it looked like a lot of the players were not trying and accepted the way things were.

However, I think we are quite a bit away from contending, but if all goes well a .500 record is attainable. There needs to be a plan with the organization, whether to rebuild around Tejada, and get the bats we need, or perhaps consider trading our strongest chips, outside Bedard, Cabrera, Markakis and Loewen and see if we can get young talent under our control to compete perhaps in ’09 or ’10. The team looks to be greatly improved on paper, but as of now, we are no where near the Yankees, Red Sox or Blue Jays in terms of talent. We’ll have to see how the young pitching develops and if Markakis turns into the next big thing.

If competing and contending ever becomes palatable again here in Baltimore for the Orioles, there are more changes to be needed with the makeup of this team.

Who We Added:
Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker, Aubrey Huff, Jaret Wright, Freddie Bynum, Jay Payton, Paul Bako

Those Who Dearly Departed:
Bruce Chen, Ramon Ortiz, LaTroy Hawkins, Rodrigo Lopez, Chris Britton, Chris Widger, Fernando Tatis

The Projected Starting Lineup:

• Catcher, Ramon Hernandez
• First Base, Kevin Millar
• Second Base, Brian Roberts
• Shortstop, Miguel Tejada
• Third Base, Melvin Mora
• Right Field, Nick Markakis
• Center Field, Corey Patterson
• Left Field, Aubrey Huff/Jay Payton
• Designated Hitter: Jay Gibbons/Aubrey Huff

Starting Rotation:

• LHP, Erik Bedard
• RHP, Kris Benson
• LHP, Adam Loewen
• RHP, Daniel Cabrera
• RHP, Jaret Wright

Bullpen:

• Closer, RHP Chris Ray
• LHP, Jamie Walker
• RHP, Todd Williams
• RHP, Danys Baez
• RHP, Chad Bradford
• LHP, Scott Williamson

Bench:

• IF, Chris Gomez
• C, Paul Bako
• OF/IF Freddie Bynum