Washington Nationals 2007 Season Preview - From the Desk of the Oriole Post....

Hope springs eternal for every team before the first game of each and every team before a season, and some teams know they are contenders and some do not. Sadly, for the Washington Nationals, most experts and pundits believe they will not be contenders at all in the National League and perhaps will lose 100 games or more. However, even though the Nationals are rebuilding their organization for the future, the team has potential All-Stars like Ryan Zimmerman & Chad Cordero emerging as the cornerstone of the franchise. With the exception of a few players, 2007 will be a year for many to show they belong on a major league club.

2006 was a year which saw ground break on the team's new home in 2008, the release of Frank Robinson as manager, to the hiring of former Mets’ coach Manny Acta, the upcoming 2007 season will determine the road that the Nationals are on for the years ahead. The team lost superstar player Alfonso Soriano & the team was widely criticized for not trading him, but they made one of shrewd deals of 2006 in which they traded away some members of their bullpen for youngsters Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez.

Right now, baseball is in a period of economic boom, and from that result, the contracts free agents have received this offseason have been unprecedented. However, the Nationals have pretty much stayed out of the fray and have had no big signings during the winter. The Nationals’ front office, led by Stan Kasten and General Manager, Jim Bowden have a plan in place to rebuild from within via draft picks, talent in Latin America and lower level players than rather than investing heavily in the free agent market. The team was able to get some young talent via trades and had a good draft; so much of the energy in the offseason was spent trying to rebuild a moribund minor league. Hopefully under the tutelage of Manny Acta, the Nationals perhaps could do better than expected.

As we are heading into the New Year, the Nationals’ have a litany of needs, primarily in the pitching department. The batting lineup and bench are in better shape; however, besides young star Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson and perhaps Austin Kearns to an extent, the Nats’ have a lack of power and impact bats in the lineup and on the bench. With second baseman Jose Vidro being traded, strong bench guy Daryl Ward gone, Alfonso Soriano now in the Windy City, the Nats are looking to become younger and have a core of players that will help them to compete.

Let’s start off with the huge glaring area, starting pitching.

The only sure bet in the rotation right now is John Patterson. The pitching situation in 2006 was unstable, to say in the least. With pitchers such as the durable Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Ryan Drese, Joey Eischen and Pedro Astacio no longer on the team, 2007 will be an open audition. However, the future does look bright for pitching staff as we have young stars John Patterson and Chad Cordero on board, a decent bullpen, and up and comers in Mike O’Connor and Beltran Perez.

In 2005, John Patterson had a breakout year with the team and was projected to be an ace in the making until last season. In 2006, he struggled with injuries and only started eight games until he was sent to the disabled list for the rest of the season. As it looks right now, Patterson must be healthy for this team to have any stability at all in terms of a starting rotation. He is the number one guy and a strong showing in 2007 is needed from him to build for the team’s future.

The two other youngsters in the rotation, Mike O’Connor and Beltran Perez, showed flashes of brilliance in 2006, as well as growing pains in their first year at the major league level. Mike O’Connor split time between Washington and AAA New Orleans to work on some things, and while he had some ups and downs, he will be counted on to maintain some stability in the rotation. The other youngster who caught the eye of many observers was Beltran Perez, who had a few quality starts in his brief time in Washington. He finished 2-1 with an ERA under 4, so the Nationals will be counting on him to keep up the good work and perhaps take his game to another level.

The wild card in the rotation at the moment will be Tim Redding. Signed to a minor league deal, he has decent numbers as a pitcher in his career; however, he has struggled with his pitching along with injuries over the last few years. He has bounced around with a few teams, as he was with Houston, then San Diego and had a stint with the Yankees. With major league experience, Redding will be counted on making a contribution to the rotation. Another pitcher signed from the free agent is Jerome Williams, a long time veteran, who’ll be expected to contribute and eat innings.

Other pitchers in the organization who might be slotted for the pitching rotation are Jason Bergmann, Jermaine Van Buren, Shawn Hill & Billy Traber.

The bullpen was a source of stability and strength in 2005, but in 2006, it wavered somewhat. Mainstays Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch were solid, however, the loss of Luis Ayala due to the World Baseball Classic hurt along with Gary Majewski & Bill Bray being traded to the Reds for Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns.

The middle relief for the Nationals was last season sometimes shaky, but overall remains solid. The main cog in the middle relief in 2006 was Jon Rauch. It seemed to me that Rauch was in every other game, but he proved himself to be more than reliable, partly because of his experience as a starting pitcher. With a record of 4-5 and a sub 3 ERA, he’ll definitely be relied upon in 2007.

Luis Ayala will also be a main key to the bullpen, but it may be unknown how he’ll do in 2007, as he sat out all of 2006. In 2005, he was a workhorse, going 8-7 with a mid-2 ERA and was the go-to man in the bullpen. He’ll be needed to get back to his 2005 state in order for the Nationals to be competitive in the late innings.

Chad Cordero is still the closer, although he was the target of trade rumors. He had an incredible 2005 and his 2006 was not a bad follow-up, as he saved 29 games, won 7, and finished with a low 3 ERA. Once again in 2007, he’ll be looked upon to close games and shore up some wins for the Nationals. Saul Rivera was another contributor, appearing in 54 games and finishing with a 3.43 ERA. He’ll be needed to maintain or exceed the same level of numbers he had in 2006.

Other contributors to the bullpen may possibly be Ryan Wagner, long-time veteran Ray King, Brandon Claussen & Winston Abreu.

Now, we go to the batting lineup and the bench. In 2005, the Nationals struggled en route to 81 wins because of the lack of power and offense in key situations. In 2006, the situation remained the same as it did in 2005. In 2006, there were many bright spots in the batting lineup who should give the Washington Nationals hope for the future.

In 2007, the situation may improve with the development of Ryan Zimmerman, Felipe Lopez, and Austin Kearns; but, the return of Christian Guzman and the outfield raises a lot of questions. Also, Brian Schneider will need to improve upon his 2006 campaign, although he seemed to show that he was coming out of it late in the year. The good news is this team is young, so there’s a lot that can be improved on for the future.

The main cogs of the offense for 2007 will be emerging superstars Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez.

Zimmerman, as all Nats’ fans know at this moment is the face of the franchise, and the future of the team. In his rookie year, he hit 20 home runs with 110 RBI and batted .287, which we were amazing numbers and helped him to finish near the top of the Rookie of the Year votes. He’s now the man of this team, and he will only better as time goes along. He can no doubt handle the pressure of being the anchor of team, as evidence with his walk off homerun on a June Sunday against the Yankees.

He’ll be the mainstay of this team for years to come.

Nick Johnson is a player who finally broke out in 2006, with 23 homeruns and batted .290. Always known as a great ballplayer, he was finally able to remain healthy enough to make an impact and become a leader on this team until he got into a freak accident with Austin Kearns while trying to catch a flyball. He’ll always have the reputation of being injury prone, but when healthy, he’s on point and the Nats will need him more than ever in 2007.

Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez came from the Reds in a trade for Gary Majewski and Bill Bray. Experts noted that the Nats’ got the best of the deal and both men showed flashes of brilliance with the team while struggling after the trade. Both men are good sized and both should be able to hit power and average. Lopez is slotted to be the every day second baseman, while Kearns will play right field. Both are young and should be able to contribute to the Nationals for many years.

Brian Schneider struggled in ’06, but his track record shows that he should bounce back and hit for power more next year. His tangibles are that he’s a good catcher handles a staff real well, and knows how to call a game; so in the end, that’s what matters to the team, though a good bat is always a plus.

The situation with the batting order and the field get shaky with Christian Guzman and the outfield.

Let’s start with Guzman. After an infamous 2005, where he batted .219 after being under .200 most of the year, and missing ’06 with injuries, he’s due to bounce back. Although 2005 was horrendous for him, his track record shows that he will do better as evidenced by the numbers he produced in Minnesota. However, the Nats’ organization has been criticized for signing him to the contract he received and he’ll always be a target for it unless he produces and justifies the signing with the numbers.

The outfield, outside of Austin Kearns, is up for grabs. Nook Logan played a lot of games towards the end of season and didn’t look terrible, and is a good fielder, but his past history shows a player undisciplined at plate that lacks power and has a poor OBP. That being said, perhaps with a good spring training and work, he will win the center field job.

The wild card with the outfield comes to who will even get to play out there. First of you have Ryan Church, a player with loads of potential who has not been able to put it together. Church is 28, and has been up and down with the organization, due to his erratic play at the major league level. Personally, I think he’s more suited for left field, or being a platoon player. In the end, to show he belongs on this team, he’ll have to work, play at a consistent level and produce with the bat.

The other men who are in consideration for the outfield are two of probably the best prospects in the Nationals organization, Larry Broadway and Kory Casto. Casto was named the Nats’ minor league player of the year and Broadway had always been seen as one to possibly play in the majors, so both men will get a chance to show what they have in spring training.

If they make the team, one or both may be on the bench unless the Nats’ get another veteran bat. A possibility for the outfield is Chris Snelling who came from the Mariners in the Jose Vidro trade. The bench does look weak right now, but Robert Fick has re-signed with the team and he plays multiple positions. As well other non-roster invitees with a chance to make the team are long-time veteran Travis Lee, catcher Danny Ardoin.

As well, the Nationals recently signed long-time MLB veteran, Tony Womack. Womack is 37, and probably towards the end of his career, but he’ll give the Nationals veteran presence, and will probably come off the bench, or platoon in the outfield or infield. His lifetime numbers are unimpressive to say in the least, but his experience may be a benefit to a young, rebuilding team.

In the end, the Washington Nationals look to be a “team in progress”. Projected to finish 4^th or last, the Nationals do have a lot of work ahead of them in order to create a competitive team for the new ballpark and beyond. The future is not too bad, as they have a few stars up and coming, along with a few signings that may produce lightning in a bottle.

How the talent develops will determine the future of this team for 2007 & beyond.