Can the Curse of the Billy Goat be Erased? The Chicago Cubs 2007 Season Preview
For those who bleed the Cubbie Blue, it was another season in a continuous line of disappointment in 2006. With a last place finish in the National League Central, Cubs GM Jim Hendry instituted a radical change in the roster. With the Cubs not having won the World Series since 1908, and not having an appearance in it since 1945, the folks in Chicago are now becoming restless and wondering if and when they’ll ever see a trophy.
As the Cubs have been criticized in the past for not spending any money on premier talent, and only looking to make a buck and fill seats; this winter the Cubs spent about $300 million in acquiring free agents and talent in hopes of winning the NL Central and getting back into the World Series. Dusty Baker who led the Cubs to the playoff in 2003 is out; Lou Piniella who was lured out of the broadcast booth is now the Cubs new manager.
The team spent a lot of money this offseason to secure free agents like Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly, Mark DeRosa & Jason Marquis. The Cubs also spent big money to re-sign Aramis Ramirez, Kerry Wood and Wade Miller. The offense should be greatly improved to complement a hopefully healthy Derek Lee. The Cubs last year were killed by injuries, lack of offense and poor pitching production. Gone from the team is Juan Pierre who signed a huge deal with the Dodgers, and Greg Maddux who was traded to the Dodgers in July of '06.
As much as the Cubs spent in the offseason, the offense may score a lot of runs, but the pitching situation is still shaky as ever.
The starting rotation is anchored by Carlos Zambrano, who is probably one of the best starters in the game. He went 16-7 with a mid 3 ERA, and his wins accounted for nearly a quarter of their wins. For the Cubs to have a shot at the postseason in ’07, Carlos needs to be on. In addition to being a free agent in 2008, it is unknown whether the Cubs will re-sign him, but a good season from him will set up an even larger payday from what he’s expecting already.
After Zambrano, the Cubs go into the unknown in terms of their rotation. Ted Lilly was one of the ballyhooed free agents signed by the team and was given a contract that many thought was a bit much for his abilities. He finished with a 15-13 record and a 4.31 ERA, and he could do slightly better in the NL, his track record shows that he should finish a few games over .500 with an ERA in the 4’s. The Cubs will need to rely on him to win games and pitch quality outings.
Jason Marquis is a coming a very poor year with the Cardinals, as he was 14-16 with an ERA at 6. He was so bad and unreliable in ’06 that the Cardinals left their longtime pitcher off the playoff roster. He’ll be one of the wild cards in the rotation as he really needs to be a lot better than he was in 2006. His history shows that he should bounce back and keep in line with his career numbers. It is critical that he pitch well in 2007 in order for the Cubs to be contenders.
The other wild cards in the rotation include Mark Prior and Wade Miller, as both men are trying to recover from injuries and a poor 2006 season. Mark Prior who showed flashes of brilliance in his career, and once won 18 games, struggled to come back in ’06 only winning 1 game and losing 7 along with an ERA over 7. In addition, his pitching looked flat and he was hit hard. Hopefully, he can come back from his bad ’06 and produce in ’07. He’s only 26 and perhaps could regain some of the magic and form that made him seem like the “next big thing” before all his problems. As well, Wade Miller will be trying to come back from injuries as he only pitched in a handful of games before missing the rest of the season. If both Prior and Miller can contribute for the Cubs, then the team might be in decent shape.
Other contributors to the starting rotation may be Rich Hill who was 6-7 with a 4 ERA along Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol. The latter two pitchers struggled in the majors, as they got called up due to the rash of injuries and ineffective pitching of the regular starters. Both may be in
Let’s move onto the bullpen. The bullpen was another component of the Cubs shaky pitching corps, although Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre had a good year. The closer, Ryan Dempster struggled in ’06 with 24 saves to go along with a 4.81 ERA and 9 losses. He pitched well in 2005, but however regressed last season. He’ll need to improve going into next season, or he may sent on his way out of
The wild card in the bullpen will be Kerry Wood. He got notoriety as a young starter who once fanned 20 batters in a game, but has been struggling with injuries for the past couple of seasons. As it is, his days as a starter are probably over and he re-signed with the Cubs to work in the bullpen. With Wood in the bullpen, the Cubs are hoping he can stay healthy and not have to face the wear and tear he would have otherwise as a starter. He’s still got decent stuff and at this point in his career, if he rebounds, he could become a force as a reliever.
Other members of the Cubs bullpen include Neil Cotts who came across town as he played for the White Sox for the past few seasons, Will Ohman, Roberto Novoa, and possibly Jae Kuk Ryu, Michael Weurtz and Angel Guzman.
Another major focus of the offseason was upgrading the offense. The major cog in the Cub offense, Derek Lee missed significant time with a wrist injury and then having to face an illness with his young daughter. This time, Derek Lee is healthy and ready to help the Cubs win. In 2005, he hit .335, 46 homers, 107 RBI, while in ’06 he only managed 8 homers and a .286 average. If Lee can return to his ’05 form, the rest of the offense should follow suit.
The newest addition, Alfonso Soriano is coming off a career year with the Nationals, after an initial rocky start as he was forced to the outfield. Alfonso hit 46 homers, 95 RBI playing while playing in cavernous RFK Stadium, along with 40 plus stolen bases. He’s right now one of the most electric players in the game, but he might struggle a little in the outfield, and his strikeout rate along with his on-base percentage may not be ideal, but the power makes up for it. He signed a huge 8 year, 136 million dollar deal and the fear will be in year 5 and beyond if he starts to age and regress. For now, he should pay the Cubs great dividends.
The other big powerhouse of the order is the recently re-signed Aramis Ramirez. He’ll strike fear with opposing teams, as he hit .291 with 38 homers 119 RBI in ’06. He’s only 28, and he recently signed with the Cubs for another 5 years; therefore, he should only get better as well become one of the premier power hitters in the Majors. In ’07, Ramirez should provide ample protection for Derek Lee in the lineup.
Aside from Ramirez at third, and Lee at first, the infield for the Cubs should have Cesar Iztruris at short shop and Mark De Rosa at second. Izturis is a slick fielding shortstop, but basically will bat at the bottom of the order as he’s got limited power with a lifetime .259 batting average. Mark De Rosa should do fairly well in
The outfield including Alfonso Soriano should see Matt Murton, Jacque Jones or Cliff Floyd starting. Murton had a good year where he almost batted .300, drove in 62 runs and had some power. He may platoon in the outfield with Floyd in town, but he was consistent in 2006 and should garner lots of playing time. Jacque Jones slammed 27 homers with 84 RBIs and hit .285, but his on-base percentage was tad below average and he doesn’t draw walks at all, but still is a good bat with some pop.
The wild card in the outfield will be Cliff Floyd. A hitter with amazing power, he’s has problems staying healthy throughout his entire career. Floyd only hit 11 homers and .244 due to being injured, but if he’s intact, he can smash the ball. He played 150 games in 2005 with 34 homers and 98 RBI, so he being healthy and able to contribute is not too far fetched. Floyd signed a contract with the team which pays quite a bit of incentives, so with a deep bench, Floyd may not have to play every day and expose himself to injury. Also on the bench for the outfield will be Angel Pagan and longtime veteran Daryl Ward who can either play the corner positions or first.
The regular catcher is Michael Barrett. He batted over .300 with some pop and 53 RBIs. He was steady throughout 2006 and the Cubs will need him to be at the same level or better in ’07. Henry Blanco will be his backup.
The Cubs in 2007 should have an improved team, but with the Cardinals and Astros in the National League Central, things may be tough. However, based on the results of 2006, the division may be wide open next season and with questions concerning the Cubs and Astros, the Cubs might be back in the playoffs if all goes right and the team can stay healthy. Derek Lee and others must stay healthy, Soriano needs to duplicate what he did in
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